Daytona Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

443
FXUS62 KMLB 050634
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
234 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Hazy skies will be possible today due to the Saharan Air Layer
  (SAL).

- Hot and very humid conditions are expected from this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure/ridging builds in over the western
Atlantic today, with the ridge axis setting up near the Lake
Okeechobee region. A passing upper level shortwave near the Florida
panhandle will help to enhance shower and storm chances, mainly
north of Melbourne, with ample moisture lingering over the area
(PWATs 1.8-2+"). However, a warm and dry SAL will support mid-
level temperatures (~-6C) and poor lapse rates above 3km, which will
be limiting factors to not only strong to severe storms, but
perhaps even storm chances themselves. The NBM remains
unrealistically high for PoPs (with 80-90% along and north of the
I-4 corridor). Thus, have trended towards MOS for today, with
60-70% in the aforementioned area and 30-50% to the south.
Forecast PoPs may even still be a bit high, if current CAMs are to
be believed, especially across southern portions of the forecast
area. Should a storm be able to take advantage of drier air in the
mid-levels, wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible, along with
the threat for lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Peak
timing looks to be the mid-afternoon into the evening hours for
convection (4-9 PM).

Southerly winds around 10 mph or less this morning will back
easterly into the afternoon along the coast as the sea breeze
develops, increasing to around 10-15 mph behind it. Near normal high
temperatures are forecast, in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat
indices, however, are expected to be in the upper 90s to near 100
due to the humid conditions. Any showers and storms will drift
offshore this evening, with drier conditions developing by around
midnight over land areas.

Friday-Sunday...The surface Atlantic ridge axis drifts southward
over into southern Florida this weekend, while mid/upper level
high pressure develops over southern Texas and spreads eastward
across the Gulf. Light southwesterly flow will lead to a more
dominant west coast sea breeze and, therefore, a collision over
the favored eastern half of the peninsula. However, continued
warmth in the mid-levels (as warm as -5C) and poor lapse rates
above 3km should continue to limit overall convection, despite
the collision, steepening low level lapse rates, and continued
high PWATs. Thus, have undercut the NBM once again through Sunday,
with a blend of CONSAll keeping PoPs generally in the 40-50%
range (contrasted to the 60-80+% from the NBM). The occasional
strong wind gust will remain possible, should a storm be able to
take advantage of drier air aloft, though CAPE values in general
are expected to be fairly low for a hot Florida day. Highest
chances will remain in the afternoons, with any convection
drifting offshore into the evening hours.

Hot temperatures late week into this weekend, especially should
convection be surpressed. High temperatures are forecast in the
lower 90s area-wide, with southwesterly flow limiting the inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze for relief. Continued
humid conditions will produce heat indices into the 100-106 degree
range. Be sure to include heat safety into any weekend outdoor
plans. Never leave children or pets unattended in a car for ANY
period of time. Overnight lows are forecast in the lower to
mid-70s.

Monday-Thursday...The ridge axis remains entrenched over southern
Florida into next week, with a few passing upper level shortwaves
north of the local area. Cooling mid-level temperatures, combined
with the modest upper level support, are forecast to lead to an
increase in shower and storm coverage. Weak steering flow will
increase the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Hot temperatures
continue through the period. Heat indices will remain a concern,
especially Tuesday, with forecast values approaching Advisory
criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions through early next week, as
high pressure develops near to the local area and lingers. The
main threat will be scattered to numerous offshore- moving showers
and storms in the late afternoon and evening hours. South to
southwesterly flow will back southeasterly along the coast each
afternoon and increase to 10-15 kts as the sea breeze develops.
Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 156 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/storms. Scattered
to numerous showers (30-70%) and scattered lightning storms (TEMPO
groups for TSRA between 18Z-23Z N of KVRB) are forecast to
develop into the afternoon and evening as sea breezes and outflow
from previous storms converge over ECFL. There is a low potential
(10-30%) for MVFR CIGs at times this morning. Light and variable
winds are forecast to increase into the afternoon with the east
coast sea breeze at 8-12kts with gusts to 15-18kts at the TAF
sites E of the Orlando metro. Winds from the SW at 5-8kts are
forecast to the W of the Orlando metro.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  50  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  60  30  50  20
MLB  87  74  90  75 /  50  30  50  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  88  74  91  74 /  70  30  50  10
SFB  90  73  93  74 /  70  30  50  10
ORL  90  75  93  75 /  70  30  50  20
FPR  88  73  90  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Fehling